Smart Picks and Risky Choices

The art of the Emmy submission has long been a strategic tightrope walk — part performance showcase, part calculated gamble. This year’s contenders are playing the game more thoughtfully, and creatively, than ever.

Apple TV+’s “Severance” and “The Studio” lead the pack in drama and comedy, with 27 and 23 nominations, respectively, while HBO Max made history with 142 total nominations — its highest tally yet. Still, while numbers and category domination make for splashy headlines, the real intrigue lies in how nominees carefully curate the episodes meant to win over Emmy voters.

Historically, episode submissions were everything. When Emmy panels were selected from blue-ribbon groups that were required to watch every submitted tape, lesser-known performers could score upsets with a powerful episode — a Tatiana Maslany in “Orphan Black” could sneak past network juggernauts. There were also no-brainer selections, like when Rachel (Jennifer Aniston) had her baby on “Friends,” which all but sealed her Emmy win.

That era ended in 2015, when the Academy opened voting to entire peer groups without requiring them to watch all the submissions. In this system, Emmy outcomes began favoring broader popularity and name recognition — which may explain why a then-new-to-the-TV-block Jon Hamm could submit “The Suitcase” from “Mad Men,” widely hailed as one of TV’s greatest episodes, and still lose to Bryan Cranston in “Breaking Bad.”

Still, the art of submission hasn’t disappeared. A well-chosen episode can tip the scale in tight races. And this year, some selections reveal smart strategizing, while others risk falling flat.

“Severance” leads the drama race in cohesive strategy. Adam Scott chose the eerie, unraveling finale “Cold Harbor” for lead actor, while Britt Lower submitted “Attila,” a showcase of the mystery behind her “outie.” Supporting players Patricia Arquette (“Sweet Vitriol”) and Tramell Tillman and Zach Cherry (both for the penultimate “The After Hours”) demonstrate a clear internal campaign to guide voters toward high-impact episodes where their characters shine.

HBO Max’s “The Last of Us” followed suit, with Pedro Pascal selecting “The Price,” a flashback piece that stands as one of his most emotionally raw performances. Its stablemate “The White Lotus,” on the other hand, took a more fragmented approach. Five nominees, including Carrie Coon, Natasha Rothwell and Walton Goggins, submitted the finale, “Amor Fati,” signaling confidence in its climactic impact. But Parker Posey and Sam Rockwell went their own way with “Full-Moon Party,” a potentially strategic pick for Posey and a possible game-changer for Rockwell thanks to his buzzy monologue.

Comedy submissions offer a fascinating contrast between cohesion and a scattershot approach. FX’s “The Bear” shows some unity in its campaign, with Jeremy Allen White submitting “Tomorrow,” while co-stars Liza Colón-Zayas (“Napkins”) and Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“Doors”) also picked pivotal, character-defining episodes.

ABC’s “Abbott Elementary” took a different route. Quinta Brunson went with “Strike,” a comedically grounded episode for Janine — but it doesn’t appear in the show’s six series submission episodes, nor did her supporting cast align with it. Janelle James chose “Music Class,” while Sheryl Lee Ralph submitted “100th Day of School.” While this risks vote dilution, it also encourages voters to explore more of the 22-episode season.

“The Studio” embraces the chaos — maybe deliberately. Seth Rogen submitted “The Pediatric Oncologist,” an excellent acting showcase. Kathryn Hahn chose “Casting” and Catherine O’Hara picked “The Promotion,” while Ike Barinholtz went with “The War” instead of the widely expected “The Golden Globes,” which features a running gag of nonstop chanting of his character’s name, “Sal Saperstein!” That choice could be costly, especially with Harrison Ford hot on his heels for “Shrinking.”

Speaking of “Shrinking,” the four nominated stars all chose separate episodes — Jason Segel (“The Drugs Don’t Work”), Jessica Williams (“Changing Patterns”), Michael Urie (“Full Grown Dude Face”) and Ford (“The Last Thanksgiving”). Each showcases a unique emotional arc, arguably a strength for a show built on therapeutic breakthroughs.

Unlike their drama and comedy counterparts, lead actors in limited or anthology series don’t submit specific episodes — voters judge the full season. Supporting performers, however, must choose wisely. “The Penguin’s” Deirdre O’Connell went with “Gold Summit,” a showcase for her measured turn. In “Presumed Innocent,” Ruth Negga chose “The Verdict,” while Peter Sarsgaard went with “The Elements,” both aligning with the show’s legal fireworks. In Netflix’s “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story,” both Javier Bardem and Chloë Sevigny submitted “Don’t Dream It’s Over,” the emotional centerpiece of the series and likely the one most voters will watch.

So, why do some actors win Emmys off a single submission while others falter despite strong episodes? Sometimes it comes down to screen time — more is better, especially for guest categories. Other times, a single memorable scene can carry an entire episode. There’s also the gamble of range: some performers choose high-comedy or high-melodrama episodes to stand out from the crowd.

Then there are cautionary tales. Past years are littered with infamous bad choices, like Sarah Jessica Parker submitting the “fart” episode of “Sex and the City.” The Emmys have evolved — from elite panels to mass voting — but the submission process remains a high-stakes art.

Whether it’s aligning cast picks for strategic focus or scattering choices to increase exposure, submissions still tell a story. They reveal how seriously campaigns are being run, how performers view their own work, and how much risk they’re willing to take. Will the voters reward cohesion, or will a standout tape from a lesser-known episode prove irresistible? As Emmy night approaches, a mix of passion, politics and pure visibility will decide the winners.

The 77th Emmy Awards, hosted by comedian Nate Bargatze, will broadcast live on Sunday, Sept. 14 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on CBS. The ceremony will also stream live and on-demand through select Paramount+ packages.

See all of Variety’s Award Predictions

Awards Circuit Predictions: Emmys

Primetime Emmy Predictions (Aug. 19, 2025)

Drama Series:
“Severance” (Apple TV+)

Comedy Series:
“The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Limited Series:
“Adolescence” (Netflix)

TV Movie:
“Rebel Ridge” (Netflix)

Lead Drama Actor:
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)

Lead Comedy Actor:
Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Lead Actor Limited:
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Lead Drama Actress:
Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)

Lead Comedy Actress:
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)

Lead Actress Limited:
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX)

Supporting Drama Actor:
Tramell Tillman, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

Supporting Comedy Actor:
Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

Supporting Actor Limited:
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Supporting Drama Actress:
Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)

Supporting Comedy Actress:
Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Supporting Actress Limited:
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Guest Drama Actor:
Scott Glenn, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)

Guest Drama Actress:
Kaitlyn Dever, “The Last of Us” (HBO Max)

Guest Comedy Actor:
Bryan Cranston, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Guest Comedy Actress:
Julianne Nicholson, “Hacks” (HBO Max)

Competition Program:
“The Traitors” (Peacock)

Structured Reality:
“Shark Tank” (ABC)

Unstructured Reality:
“Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)

Talk Series:
“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (CBS)

Scripted Variety:
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)

Variety Special Live:
“SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)

Variety Special Pre-Recorded:
“Adam Sandler: Love You” (Netflix)

Documentary Series:
“Simone Biles: Rising” (Netflix)

Documentary Special:
“Will and Harper” (Netflix)

Hosted Nonfiction:
“My Next Guest Needs No Introduction with David Letterman” (Netflix)

Exceptional Merit:
“I Am Celine Dion” (Prime Video)

Directing Drama:
Ben Stiller, “Severance” (Apple TV+)

Directing Comedy:
Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)

Directing Limited:
Philip Barantini, “Adolescence” (Netflix)

Directing Documentary:
Matt Wolf, “Pee-wee as Himself” (HBO Max)

Directing Variety Special:
Liz Patrick, “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)

Directing Variety Series:
Paul Pennolino, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)

Directing Reality:
Cian O’Clery, “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)

Writing Drama:
“The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Full-Moon Party” by Mike White

Writing Comedy:
“The Rehearsal” (HBO Max) – “Pilot’s Code” by Nathan Fielder

Writing Limited:
“Adolescence” (Netflix) – Series by Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham

Writing Variety Series:
“The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)

Writing Variety Special:
“Your Friend, Nate Bargatze” (Netflix)

Writing Nonfiction:
“Martha” (Netflix) by RJ Cutler

Game Show:
“Jeopardy” (ABC)

Game Show Host:
Jimmy Kimmel, “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” (ABC)

Reality Host:
Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)