Crisis Group expert Alan Boswell writes on a breakthrough agreement among key outside actors that could help bring peace to Sudan
n what could prove a critical step towards peace in Sudan, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on 12 September that they had agreed to a joint roadmap for bringing an end to the country’s civil war. The ad hoc group (known as the “Quad”) promised in the joint statement to push for a three-month humanitarian truce leading to an immediate permanent ceasefire. This would be followed by a nine-month political process among Sudanese to select a transitional civilian-led government. “Sudan’s future governance is for the Sudanese people to decide through an inclusive and transparent transition process, not controlled by any warring party”, reads a key sentence of the statement. Officials from the Quad will meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly’s high-level week later this month to discuss more details.
The statement, which represents a breakthrough in a war which has raged since April 2023 , is the result of intense negotiations led since June by U.S. Senior Advisor for Africa, Massad Boulos. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are both close to the government of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese Armed Forces. By contrast, the UAE is widely understood to be the main backer of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), though it denies all involvement in the conflict. Abu Dhabi accuses Burhan of allying with Islamist forces linked to the former regime of Omar al-Bashir, and has pushed for a new civilian government in Sudan.
Stark disagreements over the war among the Quad’s Arab powers have complicated peace efforts. They helped to derail a high-profile conference in London in April and led the U.S. to cancel a meeting planned for the end of July when Washington first hoped to unveil a joint statement.
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Crisis Group has repeatedly observed that peace in Sudan was unlikely until Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE could collectively agree on an endgame for the war, and in that respect the statement may be a watershed moment. Still, it will be of little consequence unless the four signatories throw their weight behind immediate implementation. Their commitment to doing so is difficult to gauge: the Trump administration’s approach to foreign policy can be erratic, while the Arab powers’ will to collectively pressure Sudan’s belligerents to stop fighting is untested. In the meantime, fighting continues, and the parties show little interest in a truce. In a clear rebuke to the Quad, Burhan’s government, which controls Khartoum and eastern Sudan, said it rejected any initiative that did not respect Sudan’s sovereignty. The RSF’s parallel government welcomed components of the Quad statement without commenting on the push for a truce.
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Time is short. With Sudan’s seasonal rains nearing an end, both warring sides hope to gain more territory in the coming months. Sudan is fragmenting . But for the first time since April 2023, the actors most able to end Sudan’s nightmare have agreed to do so. Now they need to make good on their pledge.
