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    Tanzania’s Defining Moment – Will President Samia Step Out of Magufuli’s Shadow?

    OneAfricaYTBy No Comments6 Mins Read
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    As Tanzanians head to the polls on October 29, 2025, they will be doing more than electing a new government — they will be defining what kind of democracy their nation aspires to be. For the first time in history, Tanzanians will directly choose whether to elect a woman — President Samia Suluhu Hassan — to the highest office in the land.

    President Samia’s rise in 2021 came not through the ballot box, but through tragedy. The sudden death of President John Magufuli thrust her, then Vice President, into power under constitutional succession. Four years later, the question is whether she has won the hearts and minds of Tanzanians, or if she still stands in the long shadow of her predecessor — the man whose political presence remains omnipresent across the nation’s consciousness.

    Between Continuity and Change

    Samia entered office amid both hope and skepticism. She promised to open political space, heal divisions, and restore Tanzania’s international standing. Indeed, she moved quickly to reverse some of Magufuli’s hardline policies: lifting the ban on political rallies, reopening shuttered newspapers, and re-engaging the global community after years of isolation.


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    Her more measured leadership style — inclusive, soft-spoken, and diplomatic — was a refreshing contrast to Magufuli’s combative populism. In health policy, she distanced herself from his COVID-19 denialism, embracing scientific guidance. Economically, she has continued the drive for infrastructure development, industrialization, and investment, portraying herself as a stabilizing force steering the same ship but with a steadier hand.

    Yet, for all her early signals of reform, the deeper reality tells a more complicated story.

    The Old Playbook Persists

    The run-up to this election has revealed that Tanzania’s democratic space remains under siege. Opposition leaders have been jailed on dubious charges, their parties disqualified on technicalities, and critics silenced through intimidation. CHADEMA, the main opposition party, has been excluded from the race entirely after refusing to sign a government-imposed “code of conduct.” Its leader, Tundu Lissu, now faces treason charges.

    The result is an electoral landscape tilted sharply in favor of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) — the party of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, which has governed uninterrupted since independence. In many ways, Magufuli’s authoritarian template remains alive, only with subtler execution. Samia’s administration speaks the language of reform while preserving the instruments of control.

    The paradox is that Tanzania’s democracy has become both softer in tone and harder in substance.

    Whose Development Is It?

    On the campaign trail, President Samia touts massive infrastructure projects — ports, railways, power stations, and industrial parks — as evidence of her leadership. Yet much of this legacy began under Magufuli, whose “bulldozer” persona still dominates the national memory.

    Can she claim these projects as her own? The answer depends on how convincingly she rebrands continuity as progress. For many Tanzanians, what matters is not whose vision it was, but whether jobs, services, and prosperity reach their communities. If Samia can deliver tangible outcomes, she may well succeed in claiming ownership of the narrative. If not, she risks being remembered as the caretaker of another leader’s dream.

    Identity and Political Realities

    Samia’s identity carries both symbolism and strain. As a Muslim woman from Zanzibar, she embodies Tanzania’s diversity — a powerful image in a patriarchal and often polarized political culture. Yet these same attributes expose her to identity politics that pit the mainland against Zanzibar and test societal biases about gender and religion.

    For some, she represents inclusion; for others, she is an outsider navigating the mainland’s entrenched hierarchies. Her ability to transcend these divides will determine whether her presidency is remembered as a turning point or an anomaly.

    Democracy on a Tight Leash

    Despite her softer demeanor, Tanzania remains a country where dissent comes at a cost. The imprisonment of opposition figures, suppression of civic voices, and manipulation of electoral processes betray a system still allergic to genuine competition.

    Samia’s early gestures of openness have not yet matured into structural reform. Instead, Tanzania drifts toward what analysts call electoral authoritarianism — where ballots are cast but outcomes are pre-ordained.

    Continuity or Change?

    As election day approaches, Tanzanians face a stark choice: continue under the familiar rule of CCM, or take a leap of faith with an opposition fragmented and harassed into near irrelevance. The ruling party holds all the cards — state power, resources, and a narrative of stability built on development. The opposition, weakened by repression, struggles to present a unified front or a convincing alternative.

    In this imbalance lies the quiet tragedy of Tanzania’s democracy: the forms of choice remain, but the freedom of choice has shrunk.

    Time Will Tell

    Whether President Samia Suluhu Hassan can step out of Magufuli’s shadow will not be decided by rhetoric but by history’s verdict. She has shown flashes of independence, yet her administration remains entangled in the same political machinery that stifles accountability.