The October box office begins caught between The Rock and a fan base. Taylor Swift‘s “The Official Release Party of a Show Girl” will win the weekend after earning $15.8 million on Friday from 3,702 locations. Meanwhile, the Dwayne Johnson drama “The Smashing Machine” is looking weary, pacing on the low-side of its projections for a third place debut.
It’s been nearly two years since Swift ruled the box office with her concert doc “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour,” which reached new heights with a $96 million opening weekend — the second-highest ever for an October release. “The Official Release Party of a Show Girl” won’t be the same blockbuster force, but it’s a more unique event. The release, handled by AMC Theatres Distribution, was only announced two weeks ago, with little promotion beyond the Swiftie sphere. It’s set to leave screens after Sunday, with a limited three-day run. Swift, a career-long numerology pusher, fixed ticket prices at $12 — higher than the national average, but lower than those in major markets. That doesn’t extend to premium large format auditoriums like Dolby though, where stubs come with an upcharge.
Beyond those distinguishing factors, “The Official Release Party” also stretches the definition of a movie. Timed to promote Swift’s newly released 12th studio album, the release packages a music video, behind-the-scenes footage and profanity-free lyric videos for new songs in an 89-minute runtime. On social media, Swift said dancing is “optional but very much encouraged.” Her fans are turning out in force for the theatrical experience, pacing the release for an opening weekend between the $25 million to $30 million. No surprise: audience survey firm Cinema Score polled a superlative “A+” grade among early viewers.
Caught in the Swiftie stampede, A24’s “The Smashing Machine” earned about $2.6 million across Friday and previews from 3,345 locations. The UFC biopic — headlined by Johnson, turning a new leaf with a dramatic role — had been positioned as the primary new release for this weekend until “The Official Release Party of a Showgirl” planted its flag in September, taking on a fair share of premium large-format auditoriums with it.
“Smashing Machine” is now hoping to scratch its pre-weekend tracking, which had projected an opening north of $8 million. It looks likely that it ends up as Johnson’s lowest opening ever as a lead: a low-mark currently held by the 2010 thriller “Faster” ($8.5 million). It’s a limp kickoff for the drama. At a $50 million production budget, “Smashing Machine” is tied for A24’s most expensive film ever, matching the costs of last year’s dystopian road film “Civil War.”
The muted opening for “Smashing Machine” follows a hearty promotional push from Johnson and co-star Emily Blunt, plus a splashy debut at Venice Film Festival where filmmaker Benny Safdie, one of the two brothers who helmed A24’s 2019 hit “Uncut Gems,” took home the prize for best director. Reviews are positive, though they’ve come down a touch since the strong fest rollout. But audiences seem far less keen on the film, with Cinema Score polling a lukewarm “B-” grade.
Falling to fourth place, Universal’s release of “Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” is proving a less sustainable draw, adding $1.2 million on Friday and projecting a $4.7 million second-weekend haul, which would mark a sharp 66% fall. Family features typically show stronger legs than that, but the DreamWorks Animation production isn’t spinning much theatrical draw from the streaming popularity of the Netflix series it’s based on. Projected to hit a $21 million domestic total through Sunday, “Gabby’s Dollhouse” is slowing down fast.
Also opening this weekend, Disney’s re-release of “Avatar: The Way of Water,” timed ahead of the threequel “Fire and Ash,” paddled to $1.1 million across Friday and previews in 2,140 locations. The reissue got some premium large-format auditoriums, sharing with “Smashing Machine,” “One Battle After Another” and Taylor Swift. Back in 2022, the first “Avatar” received a similar fall re-release ahead of “The Way of Water,” landing a $10 million opening. “The Way of Water” might not even nab a quarter. of that, but audiences are likely less inclined to revisit a three-year-old movie than a 13-year-old one.
More to come…
