In addition to a US Government shutdown at midnight on September 30, 2025, due to failure to pass a spending bill, an event largely ignored by America’s mainstream media was the expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). AGOA was established by US President Bill Clinton in 2000, and gave preferential access to US markets for over thirty African nations for the past twenty-five years. The act allowed eligible606 countries to export goods to the United States duty-free, and supported the growth of industries such as textiles, agriculture, and mining.
In the run-up to September 30, several African governments and American businesses lobbied Congress and the Trump administration for an extension of the act. The administration expressed support for a one-year extension to allow further review and restructuring of the agreement, and according to reports, there was bipartisan support in Congress. Despite this, no legislation has been enacted. Officials from South Africa and Lesotho indicate that discussions with the US government are ongoing but give no signs of possible outcomes.
The end of AGOA has caused immediate trade disruptions across Africa. Countries such as South Africa, Madagascar, Kenya, and Lesotho face higher US tariffs on key exports. Madagascar, for instance, faces rates as high as 47 percent on textile and vanilla exports.
A Bundle of Negatives . . .
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According to researchers at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability, some African economies are likely to face “notable adverse effects.” The macroeconomic effects are assumed to be limited, but probably understate the full impact of US tariffs and the indirect effects of things like reduced foreign investment, weakened supply chains, rising poverty, and loss of capacity building. In the AGOA-dependent industries, approximately 1.3 million jobs are at risk in countries where people have limited options in the event of sudden unemployment. In Kenya, for instance, over 66,000 people, many of them women, are employed in textile and apparel export to the American market. From garment factories and horticultural producers in Kenya to car factories in South Africa, 300,000 direct jobs and 1 million indirect jobs are in jeopardy with the end of AGOA. Protecting these jobs is not just an economic issue. They are critical to halt or limit the relocation of people into countries where migrants often face violent reactions to their presence.
. . . With a Glimmer of Hope
With the current political uncertainty in the United States, realistically, there is little hope of AGOA being on the US government’s agenda in the short term. This, however, offers the opportunity for African countries to reassess their trade strategies. Some have already taken steps in that direction. Kenya, for instance, is in the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with the United States. South Africa is seeking exemptions and quotas to maintain access to the American market for its most vulnerable industries. Zimbabwe, which was not eligible for AGOA, is looking to liberalize its customs regime to expand regional trade.
Continent-wide, there is now increased attention being given to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which kicked off in 2021. With a market of 1.5 billion people, the AfCFTA offers a long-term means of building sustained, resilient intra-African trade, provided the fifty-four countries that are signatories to the pact take the necessary actions to enhance regional integration, improve infrastructure, and promote value-added production.
The Future of US-Africa Trade
Another response to the end of AGOA, which, unfortunately, does not benefit the United States, is the expansion of African trade ties with China, India, Turkey, and the European Union. China-Africa trade in 2024, which was $295 billion, already dwarfed the $8 billion AGOA-linked trade with the United States. In addition, China has eliminated tariffs on exports from thirty-three African countries, further cementing its role as a key trade partner.
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As the African focus shifts from preferential access to long-term competitiveness, regional self-sufficiency, and diversified economic partnerships, Africa’s place in and influence on the global trading system will change. If the United States does not develop a more partner-focused trade relationship with the fifty-four countries of what could become an influential member of that system, it could find itself “late to the table” and having to settle for leftovers.
Charles A. Ray, a member of the Board of Trustees and Chair of the Africa Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, served as US Ambassador to the Kingdom of Cambodia and the Republic of Zimbabwe.
