AccuWeather warns Hurricane Melissa, currently a slow-moving tropical storm, could rapidly intensify over very warm Caribbean waters. Extreme, life-threatening flooding threatens Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and parts of Cuba.
Peak Atlantic activity usually spans late August–September, but the season continues through Nov. 30, keeping Hurricane Melissa forecast risks in play.
What’s New on Hurricane Melissa
AccuWeather hurricane experts say torrential rain from slow-moving Tropical Storm Melissa poses an extreme risk to lives and property in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and all of Jamaica.
AccuWeather upgraded Melissa on its RealImpact™ Scale to 4 for the western Caribbean and 1 for Puerto Rico. The change reflects rising threats of widespread flooding, mudslides and strong winds.
Hurricane Melissa Rainfall and Flooding Outlook
Forecast rainfall totals reach 8–16 inches across much of southern Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and Jamaica. AccuWeather’s Local StormMax™ is 30 inches.
Experts warn of widespread, potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides. Risk is highest in steep, mountainous terrain.
Track, Intensity and Timing for Hurricane Melissa
Exceptionally warm water and lower wind shear south of Jamaica are expected to fuel rapid intensification into a major hurricane.
Very weak steering winds may cause Melissa to meander. Slow movement increases flooding risk as heavy rain persists for hours or days.
The Cayman Islands should monitor updates. Several inches of rain and gusty winds are possible. Parts of Puerto Rico could also see flooding rainfall.
U.S. East Coast Watch: What Hurricane Melissa Could Do Next
Next week’s jet-stream dip and steering currents will decide if Melissa gets pulled out to sea or curls closer to the mainland before turning away.
The Accuweather base case shows a low risk of direct U.S. wind or rain impacts, but it cannot be ruled out.
Regardless, rough surf, onshore winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely along parts of the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas next week.
Alex DaSilva, Lead Hurricane Expert: “The exceptionally warm waters of the Caribbean will provide extra energy for Melissa to strengthen. This storm is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane once it enters an area with less disruptive wind shear south of Jamaica … In the hardest hit areas, the impacts from Melissa could be catastrophic.”
How Accuweather’s Realimpact™ Rating Frames Hurricane Melissa
AccuWeather rates the western Caribbean a 4 on its six-point RealImpact™ Scale. That warns of catastrophic flooding lasting days to weeks, widespread power outages, structural damage near coasts and severe coastal inundation.
AccuWeather notes its scale weighs wind, flooding rainfall, storm surge and projected damage and economic loss. That offers a broader picture than the wind-only Saffir-Simpson scale.
Atlantic Season Context for Hurricane Melissa
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1–November 30. Melissa’s Oct. 22 timing sits within the late-season window when storms still develop. Peak activity typically occurs from late August into September, with a statistical midpoint around Sept. 10.
Atlantic storms that reach tropical-storm strength receive names from a predetermined list; on average a season records about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir–Simpson scale).
Expert Quotes on Hurricane Melissa
Alex DaSilva, Lead Hurricane Expert: “The steering winds are very weak, allowing Melissa to slowly meander around the Caribbean … Hours or even days of heavy rainfall can trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas near steep, mountainous terrain.”
Jonathan Porter, Chief Meteorologist:
“Melissa has the potential to create a historic flooding disaster, especially if it slows to a crawl or stalls in the Caribbean … Catastrophic flooding in populated areas could lead to a humanitarian crisis, leaving a large number of people in need of food, safe drinking water, medical care and shelter.”
Resources, Graphics and Expert Access
Graphics and trackers: latest forecast graphics; AccuWeather Hurricane Center; AccuWeather Hurricane Tracker: Melissa; AccuWeather Ready: Hurricane Safety; History of “M” storms; AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale.
Newsroom: Ongoing tropics updates appear in the AccuWeather Newsroom.
Wrap-up
With Hurricane Melissa forecast to strengthen and steering winds weak, flooding – not just wind – poses the greatest near-term danger in the western Caribbean. Coastal hazards and a low-probability U.S. track wrinkle hinge on next week’s jet-stream pattern. AccuWeather urges immediate preparedness in high-risk zones and continued monitoring of expert updates on the Hurricane Melissa forecast.
