Best Picture Dark Horse for Oscars?

In an awards season crowded with spectacles, sequels and star-driven vehicles, the quiet power of “Train Dreams” may be its greatest strength.

Clint Bentley’s moving adaptation of Denis Johnson’s Pulitzer Prize finalist novella has steadily emerged as one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year — and a potential dark horse best picture contender. After a rousing premiere at the Sundance Film Festival in January, where it was acquired by Netflix, the film went on to make a strong showing at the New York, Mill Valley and most recently Middleburg film festivals, earning raves and deepening its resonance with every screening. In discussions with festival attendees and critics, it’s been striking how many cinephiles have shared their affection for the film.

Now sitting at an impressive 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and backed by a steadily growing word-of-mouth campaign, “Train Dreams” could become one of those quintessential movies that sneaks into the best picture category — not necessarily with a flash, but with a feeling.

Set in the early 20th-century Pacific Northwest, the film stars Joel Edgerton as Robert Grainier, a solitary railroad worker navigating profound personal loss as the American frontier expands around him.

Bentley, who directed from a script he co-wrote with his longtime collaborator Greg Kwedar, paints a portrait of grief and transformation with meditative precision and visual poetry. What begins as a modest character study becomes a sweeping reflection on death, memory and the ghosts we carry. It’s the type of movie that can resonate with industry voters.

Adolpho Veloso’s cinematography evokes the stillness and grace of Terrence Malick, while Bryce Dessner’s original score — featuring contributions from Nick Cave on the titular song — stitches together the film’s spiritual undercurrent.

Edgerton gives one of the most subtle and physical performances of his career, and William H. Macy, in a key supporting role, reminds viewers why he remains one of America’s most quietly compelling actors. The two have been steadily climbing the prediction charts over the past few weeks. Edgerton, who has endured several notable Oscar omissions during his career (including for “Animal Kingdom,” “Loving” and “The Gift”), makes a compelling case for the Australian multi-hyphenate to pick up his first nomination. Macy, who hasn’t been recognized since “Fargo” (1996), is the type of journeyman actor who often garners SAG Awards attention, especially given his four career wins for television.

The drama lingers because it doesn’t insist on its importance; it lets that significance build gradually. It doesn’t conclude so much as it echoes, like a memory you’re unsure actually happened. With the Academy’s attraction to emotionally grounded work — such as “Nomadland,” “CODA” and “Women Talking” — a gem like “Train Dreams” has a real path forward. If voters watch it — and that’s always the challenge with quieter films — it could follow in the footsteps of other slow-burning contenders that gradually gained strength throughout the season.

If this analysis holds, what does it mean for the rest of Netflix’s slate, which is as robust as it’s ever been? The streaming giant is backing “Frankenstein” from Oscar-winning director Guillermo del Toro; “Jay Kelly,” Noah Baumbach’s Hollywood-centric comedy that seems tailor-made for Academy voters; and “A House of Dynamite,” Kathryn Bigelow’s return to high-stakes political storytelling.

If “Train Dreams” is already leading the charge with critical acclaim and emotional resonance, Netflix may be poised for a multi-pronged awards campaign that spans genre, tone and prestige — a rare position of strength in today’s fragmented Oscar landscape. It’s worth remembering that in 2022, the German war drama “All Quiet on the Western Front” became the streamer’s unexpected frontrunner after higher-profile titles like “Bardo,” “Glass Onion” and “White Noise” failed to connect on the festival circuit.

There’s still plenty of time before Oscar nominations are announced — or before any major awards bodies weigh in. But if there’s a film waiting to slip past the noise and speak directly to voters’ hearts, it might just be “Train Dreams,” the season’s unexpected elegy.

This week’s updated Oscar predictions are below.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24) ***
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Casting
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***

Original Screenplay
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***

Adapted Screenplay
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features) — Craig Brewer
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story” (Netflix) — Rian Johnson

Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“In Your Dreams” (Netflix)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)

Production Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Cinematography
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)

Costume Design
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***

Film Editing
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“The Long Walk” (Lionsgate)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“The Fantastic Four: The First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Original Score
“Ballad of a Small Player” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jerskin Fendrix
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***

Original Song
“Dream as One” from “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films) ***
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix)
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)

International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (U.S. Distributor TBD)

Top 4 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” (13); “Hamnet” (11); “Wicked: For Good” (10); “Sentimental Value” (7)

Top 4 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (29); Netflix (16); Focus Features and Neon (15); Universal Pictures (11)