Abidjan, Ivory Coast – In the working-class neighbourhood of Yopougon in Abidjan, at the famous Sapeurs-Pompiers crossroad, the aroma of grilled chicken and fish wafts through the air, as food stalls compete for attention along a stretch of lively local eateries.
But the bustling intersection in the country’s economic capital – normally packed with crowds late into the night – now empties out much earlier than usual, as residents rush home before dark in fear of election-related violence and because of the lingering presence of two police trucks always parked nearby.
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The trucks have been on patrol there every day since October 10, when the campaign for this weekend’s presidential polls began. They are among some 44,000 police and soldiers the government has deployed nationwide to, it says, “guarantee a secure and peaceful election”.
While the officers at the Sapeurs-Pompiers crossroad stay inside their vehicles, their presence has deepened a sense of unease felt by many across the West African nation as Saturday’s vote draws near.
“Ivorians are living in fear,” said Jean, a 42-year-old frail-looking civil servant who, like others interviewed by Al Jazeera, asked to be identified only by his first name due to fears of retaliation from the authorities.
“Even to go to work, we don’t go out before sunrise. People are preoccupied,” he said.
It is common for many Ivorians to wake up before dawn to go to work, but travelling in the dark during periods of political uncertainty stirs painful memories – such as of the September 2002 coup attempt, which happened early on a weekday morning, and led to the killing of at least 270 people.
Fears and political clampdown
Ivory Coast is West Africa’s second-largest economy and a regional powerhouse. But the country of some 32 million people has a dark history of political and electoral violence.
This year’s vote – during which the two main opposition leaders are barred from running; the president is running for a fourth term; and there have been protests and mass arrests ahead of the polls – could turn volatile, according to residents and analysts.
Tensions rose in the country in June after four prominent opposition figures were excluded from the electoral roll. Among them were former president Laurent Gbagbo and Tidjane Thiam, a banker once seen as a rising star.
“These disqualifications, while grounded in law, are perceived by some as politically motivated and have heightened tensions and triggered protests,” said the International Republican Institute, a Washington, DC-based nonprofit that is observing the election.
Then in July, anger rose in some quarters as incumbent President Alassane Ouattara, 83, and in power since 2011, announced he was seeking a fourth term in office – a move made possible due to a constitutional change enacted during one of his previous terms in office.
Others on the ballot with him include Simone Gbagbo, the former first lady, and three lesser-known political figures: Jean-Louis Billon, Henriette Lagou, and Ahoua Don Mello, none of whom is seen as a serious challenger.
Against this backdrop, the two main opposition parties – the African People’s Party of Ivory Coast (PPACI) and the Democratic Party of Cote d’Ivoire (PDCI) – whose candidates were excluded from the polls, announced a rally for October 4, saying that the aim was a dialogue with the government.
But just two days before, the National Security Council announced it was banning all gatherings.
Despite the ban, the opposition maintained its posture and said it would go ahead with its rally a week later, on October 11. That day was a turning point, as the authorities escalated their crackdown to stop people from gathering.
In Blockhauss, a neighbourhood in the city known for its opposition ties, protesters were trapped by security forces who blockaded exits and fired tear gas. The tactic was repeated by anti-riot officers elsewhere across the city, and there were clashes between protesters and police. More than 700 people were arrested – some while out on the streets, others the next day.
It’s unclear how many have since been released, but more than 80 have been sentenced, some in what prosecutors labelled “acts of terrorism”.
Human rights groups, including Amnesty International, have condemned the arrests: “Peaceful protest is a right, not a privilege,” Marceau Sivieude, Amnesty’s regional director for West and Central Africa, said in a statement.
“Anyone detained solely for the peaceful exercise of their human rights should be released immediately. All those detained must, in any event, be granted prompt access to a lawyer and their families notified timeously.”
Seeking ‘inclusive and peaceful election’
A day after the clampdown, the opposition announced that they were calling for daily protests until election day.
“For months, we called for dialogue, to create the conditions for an inclusive and peaceful election,” Bredoumy Soumaila, spokesperson for Thiam’s party who lives in exile, told Al Jazeera by phone. “But we saw that the process was already flawed and rigged.”
He said there were “more than 100 opposition supporters in jail”, most of them youth leaders, while others are now in hiding or in exile.
“So, we have decided to protest,” added Soumaila.
But for some activists, the call for daily protests by the opposition won’t work, considering that gatherings are officially banned. Among them, longtime government critic Pulcherie Gbalet has taken a more forceful approach.
With most opposition leaders and supporters in prison or in exile, Gbalet, a former trade union leader, has emerged as a prominent voice of the resistance inside the country.
Through social media, she has urged Ivorians to “stop everything”, including working or going to school, and said people should block main roads to paralyse the country and make sure the elections are cancelled.
Gbalet was jailed twice in the past, once in 2020 when she was detained for eight months after calling for peaceful protests against Ouattara’s third term. She was released on provisional terms in April 2021 but was detained again in 2022 after the authorities accused her of colluding with foreign agents.
Though she is no stranger to threats, rising tensions surrounding this year’s election have been more extreme, and have driven her into hiding – somewhere inside the country – where she continues to challenge the authorities.
“They are looking for me. I’m threatened. Trailed,” the 52-year-old who is the president of the civil society platform Alternative Citoyenne Ivoirienne, told Al Jazeera.
“But if we don’t block everything, they won’t listen to us.”
Even though she doesn’t go out on the street herself due to the risk of arrest, she still uses her voice, decrying the president’s constitutional changes and what she sees as increasing restrictions on the country’s democratic space.
For Gbalet, the upcoming vote lacks legitimacy, and a fourth term for Ouattara would be unconstitutional.
“You must not participate in any activity concerning this sham of an election, of which the result we already know,” she said to fellow Ivorians, speaking in front of the national flag, in a video published online on October 12. She believes the process is rigged in advance in favour of the incumbent.
‘Force them to give in’
Gbalet’s call for a shutdown hasn’t been widely followed. But in this volatile atmosphere, according to local media, at least five people have died in multiple crackdowns against protesters this month.
The government said in a statement earlier this month that it would “take all necessary measures to maintain order and security”.
“Since the introduction of multiparty politics, the presidential election [in Ivory Coast] has always been a source of tension,” political analyst Geoffroy Kouao told Al Jazeera.
“In 1995, there was an active boycott that resulted in three deaths. In 2000, we had extremely violent elections that caused 300 deaths. In 2010, the presidential election officially led to 3,000 deaths,” he said, referring to the post election violence and ensuing civil war. “And in 2020, there were 85 deaths.”
“The problem is our political class,” added Kouao, referring to the crop of leaders that haven’t changed since the 1990s. Instead of abiding by democratic principles, successive leaders have instead focused on eliminating the competition, he said.
“With this leader [Ouattara], democracy has completely lost its substance, as he governs the country with an iron fist,” said Boga Sako Gervais, an Ivorian human rights activist.
“He controls both the executive branch and parliament, but he also dominates the judiciary … As a result, he uses laws to restrict public freedoms,” said Gervais, speaking to Al Jazeera from exile.
“Under Ouattara, since 2011, freedoms of opinion, thought and expression have been criminalised,” he added. “It has become forbidden to criticise the head of state … his regime has slid into dictatorship.”
The justice ministry said in a statement on October 17 that “restrictions” were currently “strictly limited in time” for the duration of the election period as well as “targeting a specific type of contestation” – those defying the current protest ban.
Additionally, it said that the freedom to peacefully protest “may be subject to restrictions in accordance with the law, and which are necessary in the interests of national security, public safety, or public order”.
As election day nears, Gbalet’s call for a total shutdown reflects the frustration felt by many. “We need to force them to give in,” she said firmly, wanting the government to cancel the polls and organise a political dialogue with the opposition.
A close ally of Gbalet said her call for a shutdown was “the only option to bring the government to the negotiating table”.
“Her call is the result of the authorities’ refusal to allow Ivorians to demonstrate peacefully,” said Donald Gahie, a member of her civil society platform. “Despite the appeals and other proposals from political parties, civil society, and even the UN, the government has remained stubborn.”
‘Go back to the negotiating table’
While some in civil society favour a forceful approach, many Ivorians are more measured.
Adrienne Amani, 40, who spoke to Al Jazeera outside a social service building in Yopougon, said she would urge political leaders to “go back to the negotiating table”.
“We need to negotiate in order to achieve peace. If the people of this country are not at peace, they won’t go to the polls.”
Turnout was already low in 2020, at just over 53 percent.
There is unease among Ivorians because memories of past electoral violence still loom large. Many Ivorians fearing an escalation have taken precautionary steps: reports suggest that up to 1,500 people have already fled across the border east into neighbouring Ghana, while others are stocking up on food and fuel, and local businesses are scaling back operations.
At a newspaper stand in Koumassi, another district of Abidjan, entrepreneur and government supporter Yeo Mamadou, 42, said he was disappointed by the escalating tensions.
“I would have wanted the election to take place in a calm environment, with respect for the rule of law. But unfortunately, there have been violent confrontations between demonstrators and police. The only option we have is to go and vote,” he said.
Nearby, Marius, selling watches and keyrings on the side of the road, interrupted. “Do you even know if these elections will happen? That’s what we need to ask ourselves,” said the street vendor, who did not want to give his last name.
“The opposition wants to block them and the government is determined to push forward no matter what, even when the conditions aren’t met,” said the 30-year-old, angrily. “If the elections take place, it could be a recipe for bloodshed, and we have to avoid that.”
This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.
