What is said to be a very disturbing side of the proposed agreement between the Liberian government and High-Power Exploration (HPX) to grant rail and port access for exporting Guinean iron ore has come to light, as it continues to spark intense debate and raised significant concerns about the country’s sovereignty, economic stability, and diplomatic relations.
While the Liberian government appears so satisfied to push the deal through at all cost, there appears no rush from the government of Guinea which is yet to indicate its formal consent to the effect.
What also seems troubling is the alleged failure of HPX to provide proof of Guinea’s approval, casting doubt on the legitimacy of the deal, despite repeated requests from Liberian officials.
Reports say Guinea’s ongoing $18 billion infrastructure project, including a railway and deep-water port, suggests that Conakry intends to maintain control over its mineral exports.
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Experts are however sensing risks and serious consequences if the agreement is ratified by Liberia without Guinea’s written consent.
According to experts, this could result into diplomatic strain in Liberia’s relations with Guinea, potentially leading to retaliation or downgrades in security and economic cooperation. They also argued there could be what they term “stranded or under-utilized rail capacity” if Guinea goes ahead to block exports or revoke SMFG’s license, a situation that they claim could leave Liberia’s rail infrastructure idle, resulting in substantial economic losses.
Another issue highlighted is litigation and reputational harm, which means that the deal may lead to legal disputes with ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML) and damage Liberia’s reputation as a reliable investment destination, as well as community backlash where local communities may protest the agreement, citing concerns about the deal’s impact on their livelihoods and the environment.
In light of these risks, many are urging the Liberian government to exercise caution and prioritize transparency, and that the agreement should be deferred or conditioned until a written Guinean consent is furnished.
According to them, Government of Guinea’s formal approval should be obtained to avoid potential disputes and diplomatic fallout, while also calling for comprehensive assessment of the deal’s potential risks and benefits to inform decision-making, and that multi-user, national-interest protections are legally embedded.
“The agreement should include safeguards to protect Liberia’s national interests and ensure that the deal benefits the country and its people,” experts contended.
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As the Liberian government considers the HPX deal, Liberians stressed that it is crucial to prioritize transparency, accountability, and the country’s long-term interests.
With these development, it is seen that the fate of this $5 billion agreement hangs in the balance, and its outcome will have far-reaching implications for Liberia’s economic future.
